Energy outlook & nuclear energy as of octuber 2024

This article carries on the tradition that begun in October 2008 and presents the results of energy consumption in the world and Spain in 2023, as well as data of and forecasts for the fleet of nuclear power plants—updated as of October 2024.

In 2023, global primary energy consumption reached 607.35 EJ, which amounts to a growth of almost 2.0%, renewable energies standing out with a 11.9% rate. Five countries represented more than half of all global demand: China (27.6%), the U.S. (15.2%), India (6.3%), Russia (5.0%), and Japan (2.8%). EU-27 countries as a whole accounted for 9.1% of total demand and, among them, Spain for 0.9%. Fossil fuels were still the most demanded energy source, representing 81.5% of total demand, led by oil, which accounted for 31.7% of said total.

Global energy-related CO2 emissions rose again relative to previous year, reaching 35,130 Mt, which amounts to a 1.6% growth (in the EU-27 it was negative with -7.6%). The five aforementioned countries with the highest energy consumption were behind 61% of all emissions. However, the world nuclear fleet in operation prevented the emission of more than 2,000 Mt of CO2 into the atmosphere, which is equivalent to almost 6% of all emissions released throughout the year. This made it, for another year, the second carbon-free energy source after hydropower.

The domestic electrical system released 32 Mt of CO2 equivalent emissions, being the lowest historical figure, with the ratio t CO2 per MWh produced also at its historical minimum: 0.12. The Spanish nuclear fleet, which each year prevents the emission of more than 20 Mt of CO2 into the atmosphere, generated 27.5% of clean electricity in Spain.

During 2023, there were 415 nuclear reactors in operation in 32 countries, which outputted 2,665 TWh. This figure represents 4% of global primary energy consumption and over 10% of the world’s electricity consumption. In the EU-27, nuclear power was responsible for 22.6% of all electricity produced.

According to data from PRIS-IAEA, in October 2024 there were 62 reactors under construction in 15 countries, which amounted to 64,971 MW of net power. China (28 units), India (7) and Egypt (4) stood out among them. 17 countries have plans to build 87 new reactors (for about 84,000 MW)—mostly in China, Russia and India—and 27 countries have proposals for another 344 (365 GW).

The energy policies of the governments of 18 countries, which follow different approaches, provide for the continued operation of their existing nuclear power plants (200 reactors have been authorized to operate for 40+ years; most of them for 60 years, and six—in the U.S.—even for 80 years).

In 2023, Spanish GDP grew 2,7% and primary energy consumption decreased 3.2%, whereas electricity demand decreased by 2.3% (-1.9% with labor and temperature correction). Spanish nuclear power plants outputted 54,276 GWh net, that is, 20.34% of all energy produced in the country (almost the same percentage as in 2022). Nuclear power is the only technology that has been producing in excess of 20% for twelve consecutive years, with KPIs around 90%. Five reactors underwent planned refueling and maintenance outages in 2023 versus four in 2022.

The Council of Ministers of the Spanish Government approved, on December 27th, 2023, the 7th edition of the General Radioactive Waste Plan, in which a change of model is adopted regarding the temporary management of spent fuel, ruling out the construction of a Centralized Temporary Storage (ATC) and replacing it with seven Decentralized Temporary Storages (ATD) in each of the sites where there is spent fuel.

This change represents an increase in costs by more than 2,200 million euros, which led the Government of Spain to unilaterally approve an increase in the Enresa Levy (Tasa Enresa) of 30%, up to €10.36/MWh, in force since July 1st, 2024.

This, together with the already suffocating fiscal pressure that the nuclear fleet bears, puts its viability and the continuity of its operation at risk. It should be noted that the total tax burden it bears has increased by more than 70% in the last five years and that between 2025 and 2035 it will account for more than 40% of its total costs.

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